Markets

Monday: Oil Heats Up Risk Appetite While Stocks and Crypto Stay Above the Reference

By Walid Mograbi · 2026-08-10 · 3 min read

A morning market snapshot tilted toward risk, with a sharp rise in oil and metals while equities and digital assets remained above their reference closes.

Quick Take

• The first read is a stronger risk appetite: U.S. index futures, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are all above their reference levels.
• Commodities are leading the move, with oil, gold, and silver all advancing.
• The main caveat is that the 10-year yield and the VIX are based on older Friday readings, so they still need a fresh update at the New York open.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures: 7,786.5, up 0.48%, above the 7,749.5 reference.
• Nasdaq 100 futures: 29,875, up 0.88%, showing a stronger tone than the broader market.
• Bitcoin: 65,000.48, up 1.15%; Ethereum: 1,917.07, up 0.79%.
• Crude oil: 78.5, up 4.36%; gold: 4,396.8, up 3.56%; silver: 64.045, up 3.13%.
• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.66, down 0.55%; VIX: 14.9, down 6.05%.

What Changed

• Yesterday, metals were the clearest headline. Today, oil has joined the move, making the commodity rally broader.
• Equities and crypto did not reverse the risk-on tone; they stayed above reference levels instead.
• The narrative has shifted from metals leading alone to commodities participating more widely, while rates and volatility still need a newer read.

Key Levels

• S&P 500 futures above 7,749.5 keep the opening bias positive unless momentum fades before the session starts.
• Nasdaq 100 futures above 29,615 preserve relative strength for growth and technology.
• Bitcoin above 64,262.11 and Ethereum above 1,902.06 keep digital assets in constructive territory.
• If the 10-year yield moves back above 4.686, equities may need to retest optimism more quickly.

What to Watch

• The gap between S&P 500 futures and 7,749.5 at the open.
• Whether Nasdaq 100 futures continue to hold above 29,615.
• Whether Bitcoin stays above 64,262.11 and Ethereum above 1,902.06.
• Any fresh update to the 10-year yield and the VIX, since those readings are older than the rest of the market snapshot.

Calendar and Read-Through

• August 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM: Business formation statistics for July 2026.
• No clear Federal Reserve event listing appears for August 10 or August 11, which limits the risk of a direct official surprise today.
• The rise in oil alongside gold and silver suggests renewed hedging demand, which can pressure cost-sensitive sectors and inflation expectations.