Markets

Thursday: Nasdaq Leads, Crypto Weakens, While Gold and Oil Hold the Line

By Walid Mograbi · 2026-08-13 · 3 min read

A quick read on the pre-open pricing mix, with a clear split between what is observed and what is inferred.

Quick Take

Observed: Nasdaq futures are outperforming while S&P 500 futures are close to the benchmark.
Observed: Commodities remain firm, with gold and oil extending their leadership.
Observed: Digital assets are softer, with Bitcoin and Ether both under pressure.
Interpretation: This is still a mixed market setup rather than a single clear direction.

Observed: S&P 500 futures are at 7,776.5, which keeps the broader market near reference.
Observed: Nasdaq 100 futures are at 29,885, preserving a clear relative edge for growth-oriented stocks.
Observed: Gold is at 4,454.8, crude oil at 82.93, and silver at 65.48.
Observed: The 10-year yield is 4.682 and the volatility index is 14.55.
Interpretation: The current mix keeps growth versus hedging in balance, with no full breakout in either direction yet.

Observed: Commodities were the main story yesterday and remain strong today.
Observed: Nasdaq is now performing better relative to the S&P 500.
Observed: Bitcoin and Ether have moved from a firmer stance to a more obvious weakness.
Observed: Volatility has eased to 14.55.
Interpretation: The market looks more watchful than panicked.

Observed: Gold’s move to 4,454.8 reinforces the hedging narrative.
Observed: Crude oil at 82.93 keeps energy in focus and can add cost pressure for some companies.
Observed: There is no clear event entry shown today on the August Federal Reserve calendar page.
Observed: Weakness in Bitcoin and Ether reduces the case for a broad return of risk appetite.

Observed: On August 14 at 8:30 a.m., monthly advance retail and food services sales for July are due.
Observed: On August 14 at 10:00 a.m., inventories and sales in manufacturing and trade for June are due.
Interpretation: These releases matter because they can change the pricing of demand quickly.
Interpretation: If the prints land close to expectations, pricing may stay calm; a large surprise could reset stocks and yields fast.

Observed: Can S&P 500 futures stay close to 7,776.5, or do they slip away from reference?
Observed: Can gold hold above 4,450 and silver above 65.48?
Observed: Can Bitcoin reclaim its reference close of 64,844.89?
Observed: Can the 10-year yield stay near 4.682 while the VIX remains near 14.55?
Interpretation: The answer will tell us whether this remains a measured rotation or turns into a broader repricing.

#nasdaq #gold #oil #crypto #futures #market-digest