Markets

US Holiday Lowers Activity, but Yields Still Set the Tone

By Walid Mograbi · 2026-05-25 · 3 min read

With the U.S. cash session closed for Memorial Day, futures and crypto are doing the signaling. Equities are modestly higher, digital assets are stronger, gold and silver are softer, and the 10-year yield near 4.57% remains the key reference.

Quick Take

• Fact: The U.S. cash session is closed today, so the market read comes from futures rather than a cash close.
• Fact: ES=F and NQ=F are both modestly higher, while BTC-USD and ETH-USD are outperforming.
• Fact: Gold and silver are weaker, oil is holding up, VIX is subdued, and ^TNX remains elevated.
• Interpretation: This looks more like orderly waiting than a decisive turn.

Key Levels

• ES=F 7,491.00 and NQ=F 29,558.75 set the initial read after the holiday.
• BTC-USD 76,405.68 and ETH-USD 2,095.49 show crypto holding up better than traditional risk assets.
• GC=F 4,523.20 and SI=F 76.20 point to relative weakness in precious metals.
• ^TNX near 4.5720 remains the line that keeps rate sensitivity alive.

What Changed

• Yesterday the message was that yields were setting the pace; today the cash session is closed, so futures are carrying the signal.
• Gold and silver look weaker relative to oil.
• Crypto has moved from simply holding steady to showing relative strength, but there is no structural break yet.
• Interpretation: the market is still reacting to yield pressure, not ignoring it.

Market-Moving Items

• Fact: The U.S. cash session is closed for Memorial Day, which reduces liquidity and can make futures moves look larger.
• Fact: The latest available 10-year reading remains near ^TNX 4.57, keeping discount rates elevated.
• Fact: BTC-USD and ETH-USD are trading better while Wall Street is paused.
• Fact: Oil is steady near 96.60 while gold and silver are softer.
• Interpretation: the tape is pricing a mix of ongoing inflation pressure and caution around rates, not a full risk-off break.

Calendar Ahead

• Today: U.S. Memorial Day holiday, with the cash session closed.
• Tuesday, May 26: delayed daily and weekly Fed releases return, including G.5 and H.15 at 4:15 p.m. and H.4.1 at 4:30 p.m.
• Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 3:55 p.m.: Lisa D. Cook speaks on artificial intelligence, the economy, and the financial system.
• Tuesday, June 3 at 8:30 a.m.: Durable Goods, followed by Tuesday, June 9 at 8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services.

Watchlist

• If ES=F holds above 7,450 after full trading resumes, a retest of recent highs stays in play, but only if ^TNX does not rise in tandem.
• If NQ=F fails to hold gains while ^TNX stays above 4.5%, treat the move as a relief bounce rather than a new trend.
• If gold moves back above 4,550 while oil stays firm, that would favor a more direct hedge bid.
• In crypto, holding BTC-USD above 76,000 and ETH-USD above 2,050 favors consolidation; a break below that range reopens caution.